How Much Will Solar Cut Your Electricity Bill? Realistic Expectations

The question we are asked most about the solar energy electricity bill is: does the bill really go down? Yes, it does; but how much depends on the size of the system, your hours of consumption and the structure of your bill. Promises such as "your bill drops to zero" are not realistic: a bill contains items independent of the system, night-time consumption is met from the grid, and surplus energy fed to the grid is valued at a lower price than energy consumed at home. In this article we explain, with Antalya data and without exaggeration or any firm savings promise, what you can expect.

Solar energy and your electricity bill: what does a bill consist of?

The total on your bill is not a single energy charge. The active energy charge, the distribution charge, taxes and levies together make up the total unit charge. Depending on the subscriber group and tariff, the bill may also contain fixed-type items; you therefore need to examine your own bill line by line. A solar system mainly reduces the amount of kWh you draw from the grid, so the consumption-linked items fall.

As a price reference, EPDK (Turkey's Energy Market Regulatory Authority) raised retail sales prices from 4 April 2026: residential 25%, public and private services 17.5%, industry 5.8% and agricultural activities 24.8%. Under this tariff, the bill of a residential subscriber consuming 100 kWh is 323.8 TL (taxes included; AA, 3 April 2026). Since no new change in July or October 2026 could be verified, check current amounts from the EPDK table and your own bill.

How does solar energy reduce the electricity bill? Two mechanisms

Two mechanisms come into play. The first is self-consumption: when you use the energy the panels produce instantly at home, you do not draw that many kWh from the grid and you avoid the total unit charge on the bill. The second is net metering (mahsuplaşma): the energy you produce and the energy you draw from the grid are netted not with the distribution company but through EPİAŞ (the Energy Exchange Istanbul, the market operator).

For installations connected to a residential subscription, net metering is monthly and no generation or sales limit applies whatever the installed power (EPDK Clarification No. 1, May 2026). For non-residential installations, for those who received a connection approval letter (çağrı mektubu) after 12 May 2019, netting is hourly from 1 May 2026. Surplus is valued at the single-rate active electrical energy unit price in the tariff table approved by the EPDK Board; this is lower than the total unit charge on the bill. So the higher your self-consumption ratio, the bigger the reduction on the bill (interpretation). On carry-over between months, confirm the current practice with the distribution company and your supplier. For the details of the rules, see our article on what a net-metered solar energy system is.

Monthly production versus constant consumption: a hypothetical example

The table below compares the PVGIS-based monthly production of a 5 kWp system with a hypothetical consumption of 700 kWh that does not change through the month. The consumption value is only an example; use your own bill.

The table shows that production can fall below consumption in winter and exceed it in summer. But there is an important warning: monthly production equalling consumption does not mean that energy was consumed instantly at home. The sun produces only in the daytime; energy consumed at night is taken from the grid. In a family that is not at home during the day, the self-consumption ratio is low and the surplus is high. The reduction on the bill therefore does not coincide one-to-one with the percentages in the table.

After the system is commissioned, an hourly meter that measures in both directions at the connection point is used; there is also a separate check meter that measures production. In this way the energy you draw from and feed to the grid are recorded separately. Placing your bill next to your old bills over the first few months is the most reliable way to see the system's real effect. A mobile monitoring app shows production day by day; but the effect on the bill is determined only by the meter data and the bill. Do not decide by looking at a single month's result; because the seasonal difference in Antalya is large, assess with at least a year of data.

Why doesn't the bill drop to zero?

• Night-time consumption: Without a battery, night and evening consumption is met from the grid.
• Winter production: December and January output is about 59% of summer (99/168 kWh/kWp).
• The low price of surplus: Energy fed to the grid is valued only at the active energy unit price.
• Items independent of the system: Some items on the bill may not be consumption-linked; examine your bill.
• Tariff changes: Unit prices change over time and affect the payback calculation.
• Rising consumption: If air conditioning or a new appliance is added after the system is installed, consumption grows.

The right target in terms of the solar energy electricity bill is therefore not for the bill to disappear completely but for the amount of energy drawn from the grid, and the items tied to it, to fall markedly. You can estimate the size of the reduction only with your own hourly consumption data. We explained what size system is needed in our article on how many kW of solar panels you need.

Summer air-conditioning load and the bill in Antalya

In Antalya in the summer, the July average temperature is 28.6 °C and the average maximum is 34.2 °C (MGM, the Turkish State Meteorological Service, 1930-2025). As air-conditioning use increases, consumption rises; in the same period solar production also peaks. This overlap makes the effect of solar energy on the bill relatively strong in Antalya. We examined the match between air-conditioning consumption and production in our article on a solar panel solution for the air-conditioning bill.

Looking at the hours of the day, the strongest production is around noon and falls quickly towards evening, while the air-conditioning load continues into the evening hours. Pre-cooling during cooler hours and shifting the washing machine and dishwasher to midday are simple ways to raise self-consumption. There is also the option of a system with a battery; however, since no payment is made for energy fed from the battery to the grid, a battery only increases self-consumption.

The difference in expectations between homes and businesses

The same system produces a different bill effect in a home and a business. Because businesses work in the daytime, their self-consumption ratios are generally high, and under hourly netting production and consumption are matched in the same hour. In homes, daytime consumption can be low, but since there is no sales limit for residences and net metering is monthly, surplus can be credited. The tariff structure is also different: EPDK's April 2026 increase was 25% for residences and 5.8% for industry; that is, the level of the avoided unit price varies by subscriber group.

High consumption and the Last Resort Supply Tariff

Another matter that affects the bill is the Last Resort Supply Tariff (SKTT). According to EPDK, the annual limit for residences in 2026 is 4,000 kWh (it was 5,000 kWh in 2025); for other consumer groups it is 15,000 kWh. For consumers who exceed the limit and have no bilateral agreement, the tariff applies from the first day of the third month following the month the limit was exceeded; a consumer who falls below the limit the next year returns to the national tariff. Because a solar system reduces annual kWh drawn from the grid, it can help a high-consumption home stay below the limit. For details, see our article on the last resort supply tariff.

In winter months, expectations should be kept especially low. According to PVGIS, a 5 kWp system produces about 495 kWh in December; for a high-consumption home this is only a part of consumption. Moreover, the average sunshine duration in December is 4.8 hours a day (MGM), versus 11.7 hours in July. Most of the rain also falls between November and February. So even if you see a reduction in your winter bills, it may not be as marked as in summer. The reason is not a faulty system but the natural result of the season. In homes that use electricity for heating, this difference is felt even more because winter consumption is high.

Ways to keep expectations realistic

1. Read your bill line by line: See which items are consumption-linked.
2. Add up annual consumption: Base it on the last 12 months, not on a single month.
3. Estimate daytime consumption: The self-consumption ratio is the key to the reduction on the bill.
4. Size the system to match consumption: An oversized system increases surplus and reduces the economic benefit.
5. Compare scenarios: Do the payback calculation with an optimistic and a cautious scenario; you can find the method in our article on how the payback period is calculated.

For the payment for surplus energy that is sold, see our article on selling surplus electricity, and you can use the expectations framework above as the basis for the investment payback calculation.

Conclusion

Solar energy really does reduce your electricity bill, but the amount of the reduction varies with your hours of consumption, system size and the structure of your bill; we cannot give a firm savings promise. At the free survey, Solar Nexo examines your bills and consumption habits and helps you build realistic sizing and an expectations framework.

#Cost and Investment#Electricity Bill#Self Consumption#Net Metering#Realistic Expectations